[過去ﾛｸﾞ] 【調査】 今年の１０大リスク、５位に「日本」。「鳩山政権は脆弱で経済も深刻。参院選では民主党が勝利するだろう」…米調査会社 (620ﾚｽ)
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63(2): 名無しさん＠十周年 2010/01/05(火)12:10 ID:eio/8zOV0(2/4) AAS
5 - Japan
What happens when the ruling party loses power in a one-party state?
You get a zero-party state. That has effectively happened in Japan,
and it’s hard to overstate the importance of the sweeping political
change--indeed it’s unprecedented for a major industrial democracy.
The new Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) efforts to limit
the influence of bureaucrats and industrialists are creating higher
policy risk, especially after upper house elections in the summer.
Currently Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is holding back on that agenda
given coalition and electoral constraints. But indications are that
the DPJ would stick with its electoral mandate and not continue its
present more cautious policy positions if it gains control of the upper
house. Given Japan’s extraordinary fiscal constraints, that’s going to
be tough to pull off, particularly since the sidelining of senior technocrats
makes it much more difficult to put flesh on the bones of DPJ policy goals.
The real power in the DPJ regime is long-time party boss Ichiro Ozawa,
who, himself tainted by scandal, remains outside the cabinet and so behind
the formal policy scene. It’s quite possible that Hatoyama won’t last
the year. He’s not a skillful campaigner nor an effective decision-maker,
and has a scandal of his own around his neck. Insiders are already looking to
someone like Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan or even the more youthful
and policy-savvy Kazuhiro Haraguchi to take Hatoyama’s place--even
before the upper house elections.
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